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THE REPUBLICANS CANNOT WIN IN 2016

The Republicans will not win in 2016. Here is why. If they do not try to broaden their base, they will surely lose, and lose worse than this time because their main demographic white males will be an even smaller percentage of the total electorate.

If they do try and broaden their base to include others they will still lose because many of their die hard supporters will not come to the polls and many in the sectors they will be courting: women, Latinos, gays, Blacks, will still much rather stick with the tried and true, than the newly converted. It will take time for their re-branding to be effected and to stick. This cannot be accomplished before 2016 so they will necessarily lose that race to.

The Republicans are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. But they are better off doing than not doing. And the sooner they get to work, the sooner they can reconfigure themselves. It was not that long ago that, though the Republicans were more conservative than the Democrats, there were conservative, moderate and liberal wings to each of the two major parties. When Kennedy and Johnson backed the civil rights movement, the South’s long slow slide to the Republican Party began, and it intensified over the decades. In the last four national elections the Republicans have used control of many state house to pass regressive, voter intimidation measures. Today, given the demographic tide, they proved useless. At any rate, the Republicans cannot win in 2016, but they do have a shot at  2020 if they keep a keen eye on the change tide. . .

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